Technical Analysis Shows Potential Bottom at $1,000 Support Level

TLDR

• Ethereum (ETH) has fallen below its Realized Price, indicating most investors are now holding at a loss
• Technical analysis shows ETH might find its bottom around $1,000, following patterns from previous market cycles
• The cryptocurrency has declined approximately 65% over the past three months
• ETH’s Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) has entered the “capitulation” zone, historically a sign of market bottoms
• Despite current bearish conditions, some analysts predict ETH could potentially reach $5,000-$7,000 in coming months

Ethereum, the second-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, has experienced a steep 65% decline over the past three months. The digital asset briefly traded above $1,900 around April 1, 2025, before plunging to approximately $1,400 by April 7. As of today, ETH is trading at $1,571.51, showing a 3.59% increase in the past 24 hours but remaining down 15.59% over the last week.

This significant price drop follows broader crypto market uncertainty, partially attributed to newly imposed tariffs from U.S. President Donald Trump.

Investors and analysts are now questioning whether Ethereum is approaching a market bottom or if further declines are still possible.

Price Falls Below Key Metric

A crucial development in Ethereum’s price action is that it has now fallen below its Realized Price. This key on-chain metric represents the average cost at which all circulating ETH last changed hands on the blockchain, offering a more realistic measure of what holders actually paid for their coins.

When a cryptocurrency trades below its Realized Price, it typically indicates that most investors are holding at a loss. This situation often triggers increased selling pressure as some investors exit positions to prevent further losses.

According to data from CryptoQuant, this dip below the Realized Price has historically aligned with late stages of prolonged downtrends and often marked critical market bottoms.

Ethereum Price Has Dropped Below Its Realized Price

“Past data shows that whenever ETH dips below its realized price, it often coincides with long-term bottom zones.” – By @theKriptolik pic.twitter.com/cVRgufkqlc

— CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) April 8, 2025

“Each ETH is evaluated based on the price it was last transferred at. When you average out all those prices, you get the Realized Price,” explained on-chain analyst theKriptolik. “This gives us a much more ‘realistic’ sense of what the average investor paid for their ETH.”

The Realized Price typically functions as a psychological support or resistance level. Trading above it usually indicates investor confidence, while trading below suggests mounting market fear and resistance to price recovery.

Historical Patterns Point to $1,000

Technical analysis of Ethereum’s price charts reveals fascinating parallels with previous market cycles. ETH’s current price action appears to mirror fractal patterns seen in both 2018 and 2022, when the cryptocurrency experienced euphoric rallies followed by sharp breakdowns and prolonged bear markets.

In December 2024, Ethereum formed a higher price high near $4,095, while its relative strength index (RSI) made a lower high—creating a bearish divergence similar to those seen at previous market tops. This divergence marked the beginning of the current sharp correction.

ETH’s price has now closed below the 1.0 Fibonacci retracement level at around $1,550. Meanwhile, its weekly RSI remains above the oversold threshold of 30, suggesting there could be room for further declines.

Based on these fractal patterns, some analysts suggest Ethereum could be in the final leg of its decline, with potential price targets in the $990-$1,240 range, aligning with the 0.618-0.786 Fibonacci retracement area.

Capitulation Signs Emerging

Another significant indicator is Ethereum’s Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL), which has entered the “capitulation” zone. This on-chain phase occurs when most investors are holding ETH at a loss.

In previous market cycles, similar moves into this zone occurred close to major market bottoms. In March 2020, the NUPL turned negative just before ETH rebounded sharply following the COVID-19 market crash. A similar pattern emerged in June 2022, when the metric fell into capitulation territory shortly before Ethereum established a bear market low of around $880.

Falling #Ethereum Could Be the Canary In the Coal Mine – Ether may be on the way to revisiting its next round-number support level at $1,000, with implications for risk assets. Full report on Bloomberg here: https://t.co/vsuw0mMLAA {BI COMD}#commodities #gold #bitcoin… pic.twitter.com/61fhprgKPn

— Mike McGlone (@mikemcglone11) April 6, 2025

Now that ETH is once again entering this zone, the current setup loosely echoes those prior bottoming phases—coinciding with key Fibonacci support levels near $1,000.

Market analyst CryptoYoddha described the current sentiment as one of “depression,” a level only seen once before in 2020. At that time, Ethereum traded near $130, yet it eventually reached its all-time high of $4,800 in subsequent months.

Despite recent losses, CryptoYoddha maintains that ETH could potentially rebound to a range of $5,000 to $7,000 in the coming months. However, he emphasizes that traders are not expecting immediate surges and are instead adjusting their outlooks with more moderate targets.

The presence of psychological price thresholds has introduced new complexities. While the Realized Price typically serves as a support level when the asset remains above it, once price falls below this line, it begins to act as resistance—potentially making recovery more challenging.

As Ethereum navigates this volatile zone, broader sentiment remains mixed. Long-time crypto critic Peter Schiff has shared a bearish view, noting Ethereum’s failure to hold prior support zones. He pointed to the June 2022 dip—where ETH nearly fell below $1,000—and warned that the current structure lacks strength.

The ongoing tariff policies under President Trump have further rattled global markets, adding pressure to already fragile recovery efforts. Ethereum’s outlook remains uncertain, caught between macroeconomic volatility and hesitant on-chain signals.

Broader crypto weakness in tokens like Solana and Cardano also mirrors Ethereum’s fragility. As investors try to decipher the impact of Trump’s trade policy, markets remain vulnerable to further dips.

The combination of macroeconomic pressures and technical breakdowns has created a feedback loop—one that’s driven short-term panic and delayed long-term conviction across Ethereum and the broader crypto market.

Currently, ETH traders are closely watching for confirmation of a potential bottom, with many keeping an eye on the $1,000 support level as a possible final landing zone before any substantial recovery might begin.